Quantifying the Uncertainty in CME Kinematics Derived From Geometric Modeling of Heliospheric Imager Data

Geometric modeling of Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) is a widely used tool for assessing their kinematic evolution. Furthermore, techniques based on geometric modeling, such as ELEvoHI, are being developed into forecast tools space weather prediction. These models assume that solar wind structure does not affect the evolution CME, which an unquantified source uncertainty. We use large number Cone CME simulations with HUXt model to quantify scale uncertainty introduced and ELEvoHI arrival times by structure. produce database simulations, representing average, fast, extreme scenario, each independently propagating through 100 different ambient environments. Synthetic heliospheric imager observations these then range estimate kinematics. The errors depend location observer, but do seem scenario. In general, biased towards predicting apex distances larger than true value. For scenarios, minimised observer in L5 region. increase level path CME. time region, mean absolute 8.2 ± 1.2 h, 8.3 1.0 5.8 0.9 h scenarios.